Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Research In Motion

RIMM hasn't been doing so well lately. Falling from a high of almost 150 down to 6.22 and then coming up to 18.32. They fell 0.52 today down to 15.66. Weekly chart below, notice that it doesn't show as much time as usual. I cut the chart down in size to crop out the previous highs so I could keep it on arithmetic scaling. Arithmetic scaling keeps the chart from looking exaggerated at the expense of not being able to show a large range of price action. I included the log scaled chart for comparison, it's the one on the bottom. 

www.freestockcharts.com

www.freestockcharts.com

The recent move down looks like a reaction to the 100 week MA. Nothing special there but the price action starting at "Point 1" looks like a rounded bottom. The recent upward move, starting "Point 2", is probably just a bump in the bottom. Bumps are kind of like fake-breakouts, price action should fall back in line with the rounded bottom at some point. There isn't really a good way of telling how long the bottom will last so it's better to buy on a break instead of buying at a "low" and hoping it breaks soon. This particular rounded bottom seems to have started in September of 2011 we could be at the mid point, so another year until a break. It could break sooner of course but the potential length of the pattern should dissuade anyone from trying to get in at the bottom only to watch their position stagnate for a year.
I marked the chart with two horizontal lines. These lines mark the two main points of interest, the highest high of the formation and the highest high of the bump. Either of these would work as potential entry points. Rounded bottoms, sometimes called cup and handle, usually mark a reversal in the trend. Sometimes this reversal is short lived and with how ugly RIMM's chart is I would feel uncomfortable betting on a long term reversal. Another thing to mention is that the rounded bottom is not confirmed until price action breaks the highest portion of the formation; in this case 32.70. Below are some hypothetical trading points.

Entry1: 18.50 (right above the high of the bump)
TP: 30.50, 59.50 (These are the diagonal lines on the chart, I got them by taking the distance from the high of "Point 1" and the high of the bump to the lowest low of the formation and putting them on the entry points)
SL: 16.65 (For lack of anything better this is just 10% lower than the entry point)

Entry2: 33.00 (Right above the highest high of the formation)
TP: 59.50
SL: 29.70 (Again, 10% off of the entry)

Both of these trades carry a bit of risk. The first one will need to watch out for the 100 week MA. Either trade will be subject to potential reversals. RIMM moves fast so any trades on it will need to monitored closely. The take profits I mentioned are probably a little too rich, going in for a 25 to 50 percent gain would probably be much safer than trying to hold to the marked points. This trade marks the highest risk I'm really comfortable with when talking about trades. This is more of something I want to mention to show that it's there than something I want anyone to really think about doing.

If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any RIMM and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.

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