Monday, January 28, 2013

Beazer

Beazer, BZH, was requested for analysis. It's currently trading at 18.18 though it's down a bit after hours. Here's the daily chart stretching back to 2011.

www.freestockcharts.com

Looks like an ascending triangle. I'm seeing three hits to the top and three to the bottom, usually an ascending triangle needs at least two hits on both. Top line is at 19.38 and the bottom is currently at 14.00 but that will move up as the triangle progresses. The top line has been broken in the past but it wasn't a break out, the price pretty quickly retreated back to the bottom. Currently looks like BZH is trying to head back down, it might get caught on that mess of MAs from 17.60-16.75.
The vertical line I placed at the right of the chart is a very conservative estimate of where BZH could go on an upward break. For a high estimate you should add 5.00 which would give you 32.00. Ascending triangles are generally considered bullish but they do occasionally break to the downside. As such its safest to buy on an upward break rather than at the apparent bottom of the pattern. Below are some hypothetical trading points

Entry1: 14.00 (This is a riskier trade since it buys in at the bottom, the entry point will change with the bottom of the triangle)
TP: 19.20, 27.00, or 32.00
SL: 10.75 (This is closest well defined bottom, marked as Low1 on the chart)

Entry2: 16.85 (This is just above the current 100 day, this is the riskiest trade and relies on BZH bouncing and then breaking out)
TP: 27.00 or 32.00
SL: 15.80 (Just under the last touch to the 100 day)

Entry3: 20.50
TP: 27.00 or 32.00
SL: 16.75 (This is just under the current river MA)


If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments.



Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any BZH and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.

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