Going into next week: The Dow

The Dow Jones closed Friday at 13,895, just 105 points shy of 14,000. Below is the weekly of the DJ-30.

www.freestockcharts.com

Important prices to note are the high of 14,200 from October 2007 and the low of 6,500 from March 2009. The current range superficially looks like a rising wedge, it isn't for various reasons including its height and length, and gives us a good idea of the current limits of movement. If there is no break from the current pattern the Dow will not move any higher and could possibly fall about 800 points to 13,050. If the Dow breaks the pattern to the upside 14,200 would be the next point to watch, a break to the downside would see 12,500 (the 100 week MA) and 12,133 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) as points to watch.
Is a break to the upside possible? I think it is. The past four weeks have been fairly strongly up. The Dow closed above the upper trend line I drew, though not by much which makes it less of an indication. It may be that we close above 14,000 this coming Friday. I'm approaching next week with cautious optimism.


Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any DJ-30 and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.