US Steel

US Steel, X, has had some big moves down this week. Currently trading at 22.34 just above their 100 day MA. Below is the daily chart.

www.freestockcharts.com

A bit of a channel forming, currently the range is about 26.00-21.20. That's not bad, a 22% move from bottom to top. Important points are the trend lines defining the channel and the 100 day. A downward break could see them moving back to 17.50 which is their current low.  An upward break could go fairly high but for safety I would cap it at 29.00-32.00. Trading a channel isn't too difficult. Buy at the bottom after a bounce sell near the top before the price action trades back down. Not much else to say about this one so here are some hypothetical trading points.

Entry1: 21.30 (This is a bounce off the bottom of the channel)
TP: 25.50 (Just under the top of the channel)
SL: 20.80 (Just under the bottom of the channel)

Entry2: 22.34 (Assuming tomorrow doesn't break the 100 day to the downside, this is playing a bounce off the 100 day)
TP: 25.50
SL: 21.75, 20.80 (Either just under the 100 day or just under the bottom of the channel, for this trade I would suggest playing it safe and going with the 21.75 SL)

Either of those trades could be taken with a TP of 29.00 or so but would need to be monitored closely, if the price action fails to break the top of the channel the trade should be terminated. A longer term view shows that the price is currently under the 100 week, a breach of the 100 week could see a move up to the high 50's low 60's. It is probably worthwhile to watch for a break of the 100 week. The weekly chart is below with the channel from the daily chart shown.

www.freestockcharts.com

If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any X and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.

Ford

Ford, F, is trading down today at 12.93. They had been moving up from 8/3/2012 to 1/18/2013. Below is the weekly chart.

www.freestockcharts.com

Ford hit a high of 18.97 back in January 2011 and has been trading down ever since. There was a brief spike from 1/20/2012 to 4/6/2012 that couldn't break the 100 week MA. The lows have been getting lower and the highs have been going lower too but they're spaced out pretty far from each other. I drew four trend lines on the chart. Line 1 marks the declining highs, only two hits on it so feel free to disregard it, if Ford bounces off it again then it will have some legitimacy though. Lines 2-4 run through the price quite a bit better so they have some actual power. The overall trend of those three is down but the trend isn't very steep. Those lines will act as support and resistance as Ford moves around that area. Since Ford is currently above Lines 2-4 they will all be acting as support. The big thing to watch right now is how the price action interacts with Line 2. If it falls through then Ford will probably get caught in the mess of MAs between Lines 2 and 3. A break through that and below Line 3 will have Line 4 as the only support. Here are some hypothetical trading points.

Entry1: 8.65 (This is on a bounce off of Line 4)
TP: 10.20, 12.00, 14.00, 18.50 (Just below Lines 3, 2 and 1 and just below the old high of 18.97)
SL: 8.10 (Below Line 4) 

Entry2: 12.25 (This is on a bounce off of Line 2)
TP: 14.00, 18.50 (Either just below Line 1 or just below their old high of 18.97)
SL:  11.50, 10.00, 8.10 (Below the 100 week, below Line 3, below Line 4)

Entry3: 14.25 (A break of Line 4)
TP: 18.50 (Just below their old high of 18.97)
SL:  12.00 (Just below Line 2)

There's a good amount of flexibility to this one as you can see from all the TPs and SLs. I think the safest of those trades is the last one but the first holds the most potential profit. Ford could potentially fall through Line 4 which would see their next support points at 6.60, 5.50, and 1.40. I don't see a fall through Line 4 as a likely thing though.

If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any F and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.

Research In Motion

RIMM hasn't been doing so well lately. Falling from a high of almost 150 down to 6.22 and then coming up to 18.32. They fell 0.52 today down to 15.66. Weekly chart below, notice that it doesn't show as much time as usual. I cut the chart down in size to crop out the previous highs so I could keep it on arithmetic scaling. Arithmetic scaling keeps the chart from looking exaggerated at the expense of not being able to show a large range of price action. I included the log scaled chart for comparison, it's the one on the bottom. 

www.freestockcharts.com

www.freestockcharts.com

The recent move down looks like a reaction to the 100 week MA. Nothing special there but the price action starting at "Point 1" looks like a rounded bottom. The recent upward move, starting "Point 2", is probably just a bump in the bottom. Bumps are kind of like fake-breakouts, price action should fall back in line with the rounded bottom at some point. There isn't really a good way of telling how long the bottom will last so it's better to buy on a break instead of buying at a "low" and hoping it breaks soon. This particular rounded bottom seems to have started in September of 2011 we could be at the mid point, so another year until a break. It could break sooner of course but the potential length of the pattern should dissuade anyone from trying to get in at the bottom only to watch their position stagnate for a year.
I marked the chart with two horizontal lines. These lines mark the two main points of interest, the highest high of the formation and the highest high of the bump. Either of these would work as potential entry points. Rounded bottoms, sometimes called cup and handle, usually mark a reversal in the trend. Sometimes this reversal is short lived and with how ugly RIMM's chart is I would feel uncomfortable betting on a long term reversal. Another thing to mention is that the rounded bottom is not confirmed until price action breaks the highest portion of the formation; in this case 32.70. Below are some hypothetical trading points.

Entry1: 18.50 (right above the high of the bump)
TP: 30.50, 59.50 (These are the diagonal lines on the chart, I got them by taking the distance from the high of "Point 1" and the high of the bump to the lowest low of the formation and putting them on the entry points)
SL: 16.65 (For lack of anything better this is just 10% lower than the entry point)

Entry2: 33.00 (Right above the highest high of the formation)
TP: 59.50
SL: 29.70 (Again, 10% off of the entry)

Both of these trades carry a bit of risk. The first one will need to watch out for the 100 week MA. Either trade will be subject to potential reversals. RIMM moves fast so any trades on it will need to monitored closely. The take profits I mentioned are probably a little too rich, going in for a 25 to 50 percent gain would probably be much safer than trying to hold to the marked points. This trade marks the highest risk I'm really comfortable with when talking about trades. This is more of something I want to mention to show that it's there than something I want anyone to really think about doing.

If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any RIMM and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.

Beazer

Beazer, BZH, was requested for analysis. It's currently trading at 18.18 though it's down a bit after hours. Here's the daily chart stretching back to 2011.

www.freestockcharts.com

Looks like an ascending triangle. I'm seeing three hits to the top and three to the bottom, usually an ascending triangle needs at least two hits on both. Top line is at 19.38 and the bottom is currently at 14.00 but that will move up as the triangle progresses. The top line has been broken in the past but it wasn't a break out, the price pretty quickly retreated back to the bottom. Currently looks like BZH is trying to head back down, it might get caught on that mess of MAs from 17.60-16.75.
The vertical line I placed at the right of the chart is a very conservative estimate of where BZH could go on an upward break. For a high estimate you should add 5.00 which would give you 32.00. Ascending triangles are generally considered bullish but they do occasionally break to the downside. As such its safest to buy on an upward break rather than at the apparent bottom of the pattern. Below are some hypothetical trading points

Entry1: 14.00 (This is a riskier trade since it buys in at the bottom, the entry point will change with the bottom of the triangle)
TP: 19.20, 27.00, or 32.00
SL: 10.75 (This is closest well defined bottom, marked as Low1 on the chart)

Entry2: 16.85 (This is just above the current 100 day, this is the riskiest trade and relies on BZH bouncing and then breaking out)
TP: 27.00 or 32.00
SL: 15.80 (Just under the last touch to the 100 day)

Entry3: 20.50
TP: 27.00 or 32.00
SL: 16.75 (This is just under the current river MA)


If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments.



Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any BZH and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.

Going into next week: The Dow

The Dow Jones closed Friday at 13,895, just 105 points shy of 14,000. Below is the weekly of the DJ-30.

www.freestockcharts.com

Important prices to note are the high of 14,200 from October 2007 and the low of 6,500 from March 2009. The current range superficially looks like a rising wedge, it isn't for various reasons including its height and length, and gives us a good idea of the current limits of movement. If there is no break from the current pattern the Dow will not move any higher and could possibly fall about 800 points to 13,050. If the Dow breaks the pattern to the upside 14,200 would be the next point to watch, a break to the downside would see 12,500 (the 100 week MA) and 12,133 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) as points to watch.
Is a break to the upside possible? I think it is. The past four weeks have been fairly strongly up. The Dow closed above the upper trend line I drew, though not by much which makes it less of an indication. It may be that we close above 14,000 this coming Friday. I'm approaching next week with cautious optimism.


Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any DJ-30 and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.

Chart Time Ranges

Its Saturday and the market is closed so I'm going to take this time to discuss the different time ranges I use.

EDIT: Just for some clarity, I mean the granularity of the chart, i.e. the daily chart would make each candle represent a day, the weekly would have each candle representing a week.

The main time ranges I use for stock charts are the one day and the weekly (5 day). I use the weekly more often than anything else. Both time ranges have their uses, daily is for shorter term trading and weekly is for longer setups. Even if you're day trading you should still consult the weekly for overall trend; counter-trend trading is risky. Below is the daily and weekly chart of the SPY.

www.freestockcharts.com

www.freestockcharts.com

As you can see the weekly shows a lot more information. Using the weekly chart to find older resistance and support lines, trend, and high/low prices is important. The daily chart has useful information as well. The MAs on the daily are more relevant to short term traders. The daily MAs also tend to be closer to the current price so they'll exert pressure on the price before the weekly MAs.
Time plays an important part in charting. A trend that has been around for ten weeks is stronger than a trend that has been around for five. Likewise MAs on the weekly tend to be stronger than their daily chart counterparts. This makes a break of a MA, trend, or pattern on the weekly more important than a similar break on the daily. However, some of the faster patterns show up on the daily and not on the weekly. The pennant, a small triangular pattern attached to a near vertical move, tends to run its course in a few weeks and as such does not show up well on the weekly chart.


Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any SPY and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.

Microsoft

It seems like Microsoft, MSFT, isn't very popular these days. Some of the reason is probably the range they've been stuck in. Below is their chart since 2004.

www.freestockcharts.com

They have a low of around 14.90 and a high of around 37.50. Most of the price action is in the 21.40 to 31.70 range. They're currently trading under their 100 week and under the 34 week river. The interesting thing is the floor they seem to have made at 26.30. There's a little bit of historical confirmation, not as much as I'd like but enough to trade off of I think. I have the older hits on that level marked with arrows. Notice how it acted as resistance rather than support. Resistance turns into support when the stock starts to change trends. Not that there's really a trend here to change. MSFT has been trading sideways since they fell off their highs in 2000. Because of that no one pays them any attention anymore. Who wants to be in a sideways stock? There are a few potential trades setting up here though. Buying a confirmation of the bounce off 26.30 is the shorter term trade. Then there's the trades that might come up in the future, buying a break out of their top level at 33 is the main one there. I'm not going to take any guesses as to when or even if they'll break 33. One last thing I want to mention before I give some possible trading points. Look at the high and low areas marked by text. You can see a rising top and a rising bottom. That doesn't necessarily mean anything but it's definitely something to watch. Continued rising highs and rising lows would be a good indication to take a long term long position. I marked one low point as "? Low" because it came before the downward fall to 14.90. That makes me not want to include it with the other high/low markers since its partially invalidated but its still worth mentioning.

Entry1: 28.00 (note that this is inside the river so there is a higher level of risk)
TP: 31.20
SL: 27.30 or 26.00 (under the 100 week or under the current floor)

Entry2: 29.30 (on top of river to help minimize potential losses)
TP: 31.20
SL: 27.30

The longer term one I mentioned doesn't really have any entry/exits and could be taken at any level as long as the highs and lows continue to rise. Right now could be an alright entry for the long term, I would use the stop-loss from the first trade.

Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any MSFT and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.

Intel

Intel, INTC, is showing some interesting movement. They bounced off the bottom of their channel back in November and look to be heading back down ever since a week ago. The weekly chart below shows what I'm talking about.

www.Freestockcharts.com

The chart shows the channel which began in January 2009. Looks like a double bottom preceded it. Before the current bull channel there was a downtrend from 2004 or so, no channel on that though. Some things to consider are the lows at 12.10, that will act as a floor if the current channel breaks to the downside, the current high 29.30 will act as upside resistance.

The river moving average, the yellow MAs, is more important short term than the old highs. You can see a failure to breech on that candle that hit 23.10. They'll probably move back down to their channel bottom before trying to rebound. There's probably a good entry point around 20.00 but it could always break downward. If INTC can break their 34 and 100 MAs it would probably be a more compelling buy.

One thing to note is that the channel they're in right now probably isn't the best example of a channel. They seem to favor the middle/top instead of filling the whole thing. Its old enough that I think its fairly strong but the recent break to the bottom could be signs of cracking.

Some potential trades, note that entries and stop-losses are by closing price and that these trades are being described from the weekly chart. These are long ideas, I won't cover any short ideas.

Entry1: 20.00
TP: 22.15
SL: 19.40

Entry2: 23.75
TP: 28.50
SL: 22.00

Do your own research before taking any position. I do not currently own any INTC and do not plan on buying any within the next 72 hours.