Oracle

Oracle, ORCL, traded up a bit today. Daily chart below.

www.freestockcharts.com

Looks like a bottom has been hit. The gap will probably offer some resistance but I think ORCL will break through it. The bottoms have been rising for some time now, that's usually a bullish sign. I think a buy at these levels with a sell around 35.50 would be a good trade. Not much else to say, hypothetical trade below.

Entry: 31.95 (Now)
TP: 35.00, 35.50 (Under the top of the gap or under the old high)
SL: 31.00 (Under the current bottom)

A case could be made for holding to 36.00 or higher but I think 35.00 is a safer target. Not a bad trade, a dollar in risk and three in potential profit.



If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I don't have a position in ORCL nor will I be taking one in the next 72 hours. 

Vale

Vale, VALE, has been moving down for a while. Weekly chart below.

www.freestockcharts.com

Looks like some overhead resistance holding them down. They won't be a buy until they break it. That doesn't mean that they'll be moving down from here but I don't think a buy would be a safe move until they break out. Resistance is currently 19.60 or so, I'll say that a close over 20.00 is probably a good buy indication. Current floor is 15.80, this was hit twice (labeled "1" and "2") in the past. I'm not going to go over any trades for this one because I think that would be premature. I'll be watching this one though to see how it reacts to the resistance and the floor.



If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I don't have a position in VALE nor will I be taking one in the next 72 hours. 

Hewlett-Packard

Hewlett-Packard, HPQ, moved up today. Daily chart below.

www.freestockcharts.com

HPQ is coming up on the 61.8% fib resistance. A few things could happen here. Price could break through with no issue and move up to the 100% retrace (30.00). Price could retreat temporarily down to the 50% (20.60) or the 38.2% (18.45). Lastly, the up trend could reverse entirely which would see HPQ going back to 11.00 or so. This won't generate a buy signal until it breaks the 61.8% level. You might have noticed that the 161.8% level (41.75) marks resistance from back in May of 2012. I'm going to call that the long term price target, with the short term being the 100% retrace (30.00). Some hypothetical trades below.

Entry: 24.00, 25.75 (Above the 61.8% retrace level)
TP: 29.85, 41.00 (Below the price targets)
SL: 20.20, 17.00 (Below the 50% and under the gap from February 2013)

I like the long term prospects for this one, the entries and stop losses are little messy in my opinion but I think they'll work out OK. Time frame for the short term trade is less than four months, though a strong pullback could make it closer to six months. The longer term trade could take a year or so.


If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I don't have a position in HPQ nor will I be taking one in the next 72 hours. 

LSI Corporation

LSI Corp, LSI, traded up a bit today ending at 6.95. Weekly chart below.

www.freestockcharts.com

Looks like some constriction in the works. It'll probably breakout within six weeks. I think this will be an upward breakout but really it could go either way. The vertical lines are my price targets (11.20 and 2.75), I just took the high of the formation and the low and used that distance to make a prediction. As I've said before I won't be going into shorting here so I'll just give some long trading ideas.

Entry: 8.15, 7.75, 7.50 (Above the formation by a bit to make sure a fake break doesn't trigger a buy)
TP: 11.00, 10.50 (Below the 11.20 target)
SL: 6.20, 6.00 (Below the formation)

I think there's a decent possibility for this one to have a few fake breaks before picking a direction. Taking a higher entry point or a lower SL will help to avoid getting thrown out from that. I'd also like to point out that even though my price targets are fairly far away from the current price percentage-wise they are within the high/low of the weekly chart. This trade isn't counting on new highs being formed.



If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I don't have a position in GT nor will I be taking one in the next 72 hours. 

Ford

Ford, F, traded up a bit today closing at 13.34. Weekly chart below.
 

www.freestockcharts.com

The lows have been going lower which isn't a good sign but the recent price action has been fairly bullish. The latest peak (circled) seems to have been caused by resistance from early 2010. After that peak, price retreated to the river and bounced back up; notice the wick on the pivoting candle (also circled). That wick shows that the bearish pressure was negated by bullish pressure; a good sign. I expect price to move back up to the resistance (14.50). From there it could either break out and test 16.20 and 19.00 or it could fall back to the river (12.20), 100 week (11.60), or bottom trend (8.30). The support numbers will change with time, the resistances will not.
I see two decent ways to enter this one. First, and riskiest, buying now. Second, and safer, buying on a break of the 14.50 resistance. I guess another way would be to buy now and hold till 14.00 or so and then sell there but the gain from that would be minimal compared to the other trades. Some hypothetical trades below.

Entry1: Now (13.34)
TP: 18.50 (Under the 19.00 resistance)
SL: 12.00, 11.50 (In the river, under the 100 week, a lower SL could work but I wouldn't put it any lower than 8.00)

Entry2: 15.00 (Above the 14.50 resistance)
TP: 18.50
SL: 14.00, 12.00, 11.50 (14.00 is just under the 14.50 resistance)

I think that buying now would be a decent trade risk/reward wise as long as a SL is set at a reasonable price. I don't usually care about dividends or long term investments but F looks interesting on that front with a 3.10% dividend. I haven't looked at the fundamentals at all though so I have no idea if it's worth holding for longer than this trade. It certainly does look interesting as a candidate for an investment though.



If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I don't have a position in F but I may initiate one in the next 72 hours.

FMC Technologies

FMC Technologies, FTI, traded up a bit today ending at 51.55. Daily chart below.

www.freestockcharts.com

Looks like a pennant forming. Price target is 56.00, from the current 51.55 that's a decent 4.45 move. I'd probably only try to get about 4.00 of that. As always, pennants are fairly easy to trade. Price target is just the "pole" added to a low point in the pennant. With this one the pole isn't very long compared to the pennant, I considered making it longer so it would encompass that entire up move but that would be an improper measure. Still, I think this one could probably move higher than my price target fairly easily. The highest point on this chart is roughly 55.20 so I'll call that as possible resistance. A quick look at the weekly chart showed some constriction in the works but nothing that I would feel comfortable calling a trade. The high point on the weekly chart is the same as on the daily; 55.20. Some hypothetical trades below.

Entry: Now (51.55), 51.75 (On a breakout of the pennant which is fairly close to the current price, price might move to 50.75 before trying to breakout however)
TP: 55.00, 55.50 (Below the high, below the target, another option would be to hold for a bit more gain, I think this might be able to go to 60.00 so a TP of 58.00 or so could be good)
SL: 50.00, 48.70 (Under the pennant base or under the small gap circled)

I like the SL on this one, fairly tight. Holding to 58.00 is the riskier option with this trade. If it develops resistance after hitting 55.00 or before hitting 58.00 the best thing to do would be to end the trade.



If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I don't have a position in FTI nor will I be taking one in the next 72 hours. 

Tata Motors

Tata Motors, TTM, traded down a bit today. Weekly chart below.

www.freestockcharts.com

The ascending triangle is fairly obvious. This one is fairly mature so it'll probably break out in the next six to twelve weeks. The price target is off screen but it's about 46.00, not bad from the current 28.00. Range right now is from 24.70 to 30.90 so it's currently trading in the higher half of that. It might go back down to the bottom of the formation before a breakout so waiting for a better price is probably an OK idea. Of course the best thing to do would be to buy the break just in case the pattern decides to fail. Decide for yourself what level of risk you're comfortable with. Some hypothetical trading points below.

Entry1: 31.50 (Close above the top)
TP: 40.00, 42.00, 45.00 (Anywhere under 46.00 is fine)
SL: 26.60, 24.00 (Either under the 100 day or under the bottom of the pattern. A tighter exit could be 30.00 but sometimes there is a small retrace after a break, 30.00 would probably get thrown out)

Entry2: 25.00 (Above the bottom of the formation)
TP: 40.00, 42.00, 45.00
SL: 24.00, 23.00 (23.00 is just under the 100 week MA)

The first entry has a higher potential loss but I would consider it the safer entry, less chance of the pattern being a dud. Still, an entry at 25.00 looks very attractive to me and the risk is only 1.00 or 2.00 which isn't horrible. I might end up buying this one if it hits 25.00.


If you have a stock you want analyzed leave it in the comments. 

Do your own research before taking any position. I don't have a position in TTM but I might initiate one at some point in next few weeks. 

Midweek: The Dow 5

The Dow closed above 14,250 today. Hourly chart below.

www.freestockcharts.com

Nice strong break of the broadening formation. Price action kind of trailed off afterwards but that's normal. Where do we go from here? At this point I'm bullish long term and short term so I'll be looking for buys. I'm a little worried about the pullback that never came but at this point the chart seems mostly bullish. This next chart is a log scaled quarterly chart of the Dow.

www.freestockcharts.com

Because of the time frame involved calling this a broadening formation is probably incorrect. The more interesting thing about this is that we can get a vague idea of where the Dow might be going to. Right now that top line is at roughly 16,500 and the bottom is at roughly 5,950. Historically the Dow never really goes lower than the 100 period on this view so I think the real range is more like 16,500 to 8,000. I don't think we'll see 8,000 any time soon though, like I said I'm mostly bullish at this point.
The main issue with the market right now is that it is not in a true bull phase. Price action has only been moving up for a very short period of time and large moves down have happened recently. I believe that buying now is a good idea but at the same time I don't think the Dow will see a resumption of the major bull trend until it breaks 16,500 or so. This leaves more than 2,000 points of run so it's not really a gloomy view. Trading on a quarterly time frame isn't really a fun game to play anyway because of the time involved, the weekly view is really the longest I would go for when making a trade. Sometimes it is nice to look at things from a distance though.

Going into next week: The Dow 6

Looks like we're still in that broadening formation. Hourly chart below.

www.freestockcharts.com

I'm still looking for a pullback. Maybe we'll get lucky and Dow will break out through the top next week. Looks like the 100 period MA is currently giving some support. That might get tested again before a direction is picked. I'd stay out of the market until this formation clears up, no need to take on the extra risk. I don't think any major buy signals will appear in the Dow until it breaks about 14,250.